2024 was a year of progress for zero-emissions trucks (battery-electric and fuel cell) globally. With sales numbers, range, and model availability all increasing, the other part of the puzzle is refuelling. For electric charging and hydrogen refuelling, barriers remain concerning grid capacity, costs, scalability, and sustainability.
IDTechEx’s new report, “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts”, analyzes the requirements for mass deployment of BEV and FCEV trucks, factoring into over 80 forecast lines, including units, market size, battery demand, and fuel cell demand.
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IDTechEx expects the average battery size of medium and heavy-duty trucks to increase from 2025 to 2045 to drive greater distances and cover additional use cases. This is the only way for them to compete with internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks in all circumstances.
BEV trucks are currently viable regional and hub-to-hub transport options, but they are less effective at long-haul journeys due to their limited range and lack of fast charging.
However, heavier batteries will decrease the overall vehicle’s payload. They will generally be a costly addition, as battery packs usually make up more than half of an electric truck’s manufacturing costs.
Therefore, the battery capacity cannot increase in size infinitely, meaning that fast, on-route charging in the form of MW charging will also be required to meet duty cycle requirements and drive electric truck uptake. IDTechEx estimates deploying MW chargers will fulfil approximately 90% of trucking use cases.
While a Tesla Model 3 (78kWh capacity) and Volvo FH Electric (Gross Combination Weight 44 tonnes, 360-540kWh capacity) charge at 250kW, it takes 2.5 hours for the Volvo truck to charge up to 300km range fully. In contrast, Model 3 can charge 80% of its 680km range in less than 30 minutes.
Although electric cars and trucks use the same charging standards, the much greater weight and battery capacity required of electric trucks take much longer to charge on current CCS (Combined Charging System) and other charging standards, increasing downtime.
Minimizing downtime is vital to the economic viability of commercial vehicle operations. 2025 promises the finalization of the Megawatt Charging System (MCS) standard, allowing EVs to charge at powers exceeding 1MW, theoretically up to 3.75MW.
In 2024, several MW charger deployments were already led by charging station network operators such as Milence and WattEV and hardware manufacturers such as Power Electronics.
IDTechEx expects the number of MW charging solutions to increase significantly in 2025 when the MCS standard is finalized, bringing growth of MW charger deployments to serve the growing battery-electric truck market.
Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure Needs to Improve
FCEV sales stalled significantly in 2024, although a limited number of fuel cell trucks are operational in the US and Europe. Like battery-electric trucks, China dominates the fuel cell truck market, with almost 4,000 heavy-duty fuel cell truck sales between January and November 2024, its third consecutive year of sales exceeding 3,000 units.
While the outlook for fuel-cell passenger vehicles is uncertain, heavy-duty trucks have emerged as the best use case for fuel-cell technology: hydrogen is typically much lighter than battery packs for achieving the same mileage, and the lack of hydrogen refuelling stations is less of a problem with fixed commercial routes.
However, the lack of hydrogen refuelling stations remains a barrier. As of January 2025, there are only 77 hydrogen refuelling stations in total in the USA, and 61 are based in California. Europe has a similar issue with 190 refuelling stations, but approximately half of those are located in Germany.
In addition, in recent years, the price of hydrogen at the pump has soared in some regions. In 2019, it cost as little as US$13.11 per kg at True Zero Oakland hydrogen station, California, whereas in 2023, prices reached US$36 per kg in True Zero’s 37 stations.
This 175% increase in price reflects a struggling FCEV market, a lack of large-scale renewable hydrogen production, difficulties in transport and storage, and reduced Low Carbon Fuel Standard subsidies.
From a total cost-of-ownership (TCO) perspective, fuel-cell trucks are at a disadvantage compared to battery electric trucks, which make back the higher upfront cost compared to diesel trucks with cost-effective charging over the vehicle’s lifetime.
Furthermore, while hydrogen has the potential to contribute to decarbonization, grey hydrogen produced by natural gas results in more significant CO2 emissions per km driven than diesel.
Sustainable hydrogen fuel would require a much more substantial proportion of green hydrogen than what is currently being produced. Consider considerable upfront and continuous costs for a hydrogen refuelling station supplied with green hydrogen: electrolyzers, storage tanks, compressors, cooling, and transport.
Furthermore, if a refuelling station is to provide both 350 bar (for trucks and heavy-duty vehicles) and 700 bar (primarily for passenger vehicles) pressure hydrogen fuel, then double the number of pressure regulators, fueling valves, dispenser nozzles, and safety systems would be required.
Battery Electric Trucks Will Dominate, But Hydrogen Will Stay
When considering the barriers that fuel cell trucks need to overcome to become a viable market solution, it is clear that battery-electric trucks are the more established solution.
However, a growing EV market and increased power demand from MW chargers mean that most areas require significant grid upgrades to ensure that electrical power can be distributed safely and in large quantities to charging hubs. Across the globe, individual upgrades can cost millions of US$ and will take multiple years to complete.
Electrolyzers can produce green hydrogen onsite and store it to be used throughout the day. Alternatively, hydrogen can be made offsite and transported to the required location by truck.
As a result, IDTechEx predicts that while battery-electric trucks will become the dominant technology for trucks by 2045, there will be locations where fuel cell trucks will be deployed.
IDTechEx forecasts that approximately 20% of new sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2045 will be fuel cell models. Further details are available in IDTechEx’s report, “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2025-2045: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts”.