A federal trade court’s landmark decision to block many of the Trump administration’s global tariffs has jolted the HVAC industry, injecting new uncertainty into a market already reeling from price hikes and supply chain disruptions. In a sweeping order, the court not only found that President Donald Trump overstepped his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers – it also instructed the government to return the tariff revenue collected so far.
But whether affected businesses will actually see those refunds is far from clear. The Trump administration’s rapid appeal has set the stage for a potential Supreme Court battle. “They’re challenging the court ruling already,” said Dr. Sunderesh S. Heragu, Regents Professor at Oklahoma State University and president of the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers. “Even the Supreme Court might just kick it back and say the lower court ruling holds, because they got their ruling ironclad—even anticipating, I think, the Supreme Court appeal. But they’ll probably fight all the way, and that means delay. It’s going to continue into the fall, at least.”
“This is not just another headline; it’s a pivotal moment for the entire supply chain,” Heragu added. “Even if the Supreme Court declines to intervene, they could find new ways to reinstate tariffs, especially by framing them as a national security issue. That’s the level of uncertainty we’re operating in.”
For HVAC contractors, the impacts of this legal and policy whiplash are immediate and far-reaching.
“The uncertainty created by these tariffs is already doing long-term damage,” Heragu explained. “Canada and Mexico are already seeking new alliances. If we can’t count on steady imports of steel, aluminum, and key components, costs will go up and timelines will get longer. The U.S. just doesn’t have the capacity or labor to make up for all the lost imports in the short term – there’s not enough machinery, and not enough ‘human capital’ willing or able to do that work at current wage rates.”
The numbers tell the story: In 2024 alone, the U.S. imported nearly $38 billion in iron and steel and $70 billion in aluminum.
“If you suddenly slap a 25% tariff across the board, it’s not just a linear price hike. You can’t just flip a switch and expect American factories to fill that gap,” Heragu said. “We’re already seeing companies in other countries redirect their exports elsewhere, and that’s going to further squeeze U.S. contractors.”
Manufacturers are moving quickly to adjust. Goodman, for example, has announced an 8% to 10% price increase on all residential unitary and ductless products. Robertshaw has raised prices by 15% on selected items, directly citing tariffs as the reason. These are just two examples from a growing list of manufacturers implementing similar increases, as tracked by the ACHR NEWS.
“Contractors are getting squeezed from both sides,” Heragu said. “If you’ve already put in a bid at one price and the cost of equipment jumps 10 or 15 percent, you’re either eating the loss or passing it on to the customer. That’s not a sustainable way to run a business.”
The price hikes are also arriving at the worst possible time. With summer demand surging, many contractors report scrambling to secure inventory before further increases hit. With high uncertainty in input pricing, businesses are avoiding operating at full capacity.
“It’s a holding pattern,” Heragu said. “CEOs are waiting to see what happens, but the reality for smaller contractors is they can’t afford to wait. They’re trying to keep projects on track, but every new round of tariffs or price hikes makes that harder.”
Yet, amid the chaos, not everyone is raising prices. Tony Petrossian, president of Rossi HVAC Hardware, recently reassured customers that his company would keep prices steady, crediting Rossi’s long-standing commitment to American-sourced materials. “While others are raising prices, we are not implementing any increases at this time – and we don’t anticipate the need to in the foreseeable future,” Petrossian wrote in a customer letter. Rossi’s stability in pricing stands in stark contrast to much of the HVAC market, where uncertainty is the new normal.
Heragu believes the volatility goes beyond immediate costs.
“There’s no part of this tariff policy that puts downward pressure on the price. It only puts upward pressure,” he said. “It’s not just about tariffs. We’re seeing labor shortages, stricter immigration policies, even cuts to university research, and fewer international students in technical fields. All of these things matter for innovation and productivity in HVAC and related sectors.”
He estimates that, as the dust settles, the industry could face sustained cost increases of 10% to 30%.
“And that’s if things don’t escalate further,” he warned. “We’re already seeing inflation in the 8-10% range for many goods, and if tariffs stick at even 10–25%, you could see that number go much higher. Contractors who rely on imported parts are going to feel it most.”
As the administration presses its appeal and manufacturers continue to adjust, Heragu cautions that the only sure thing is more unpredictability.
“Uncertainty is never good for business. Companies are being forced to delay investments, consumers are putting off big purchases, and everyone is waiting to see what happens next,” Heragu said, noting servicing and maintaining existing equipment – instead of replacing it – is becoming a significant preference for consumers.
For now, HVAC contractors and their customers are left to navigate a turbulent market defined by rapid legal shifts, rising material costs, and a policy environment where the only constant is change.
“This is not just about economics,” Heragu concluded. “It’s about the entire ecosystem of how we build, cool, and heat our homes and businesses in America. And right now, that ecosystem is under a lot of strain.”