We’re six months in, and there’s no doubt about it: Our industry has been in for a bumpy ride. From the R-454B shortage to tariffs driving up prices, a wave of install lawsuits, and now the potential for energy efficiency tax credits — including HVAC — to be axed completely in the latest D.C. spending bill, 2025 has been tough sledding in the heating and cooling industry.
But bad news always shouts. Sometimes the good news is a little quieter. It may not feel like it when refrigerant is going for $940 per cylinder, like contractor Maxwell F. in reported to us from Florida, but there are bright spots, too. So if you are tired of doom and gloom and just want some reassurance that it’s all going to work itself out, here are 3 things to be positive about while we’re waiting around for the cylinder manufacturers to catch up.
1/ 529 savings plans, traditionally put toward college, could soon pay for trades education, too
Included in the “Big Beautiful Bill” spending package is legislation that would let families use tax-free education savings to fund apprenticeships, licenses, and HVACR certifications. Barton James, president and CEO of ACCA, said that should this proposal become law, it’s a real opportunity for contractors to help the next generation see the trades as a smart, intentional career choice — not a backup plan.
“The expansion of 529 eligibility is a huge win for our industry and for families exploring alternatives to the traditional four-year college path,” he said. “This change helps legitimize skilled trades as a first-choice career and not just a fallback — and that shift in perception is critical to strengthening our workforce pipeline.”
Stan Kolbe, executive director of government and political affairs at SMACNA, called it “progress,” and ACCA called it “historic” and “a major step forward” for workforce development and the skilled trades.
2/ More than half of HVAC contractors are feeling optimistic about the future
Maybe just as significant, a mere 2-3% said they felt pessimistic.
That’s according to EGIA’s 2025 HVAC Contractor Survey Report; this year’s data said 51% of HVAC leaders are optimistic toward the future of HVAC, citing tech innovation and green opportunities. Another 46% are neutral, “likely due to regulatory, supply chain, and workforce concerns, reflecting a cautious outlook amid industry evolution,” the survey stated.
And it sounds like the kids are all right. Broken down further, 52% were positive in the under-45 age group, 57% among ages 45-54, and 44% among ages 55+.
“Younger HVAC leaders are more optimistic, likely inspired by tech advancements and sustainability,” the survey explained. “Leaders 55 and older tend to be more neutral, possibly due to experience with market ups and downs, regulatory shifts, and the complexities of adopting new technologies.”
When asked about the top opportunity for growth, most HVAC companies in the survey picked improvements in equipment technology. However, firms over $10 million in revenue picked AI — perhaps an indicator that HVAC, notorious for being about 10 years behind the times, might finally be catching up.
3/ Despite the threat of tariffs and higher prices, demand for HVAC isn’t going anywhere
Back in March, HVAC was grappling with talk from the Trump administration of tariffs on imported products, including steel and aluminum — tariffs that savvy consumers knew would be passed right along to them in the form of price increases on new a/cs, heat pumps, and furnaces. Plus, the refrigerant shortage had just hit, leaving everyone scrambling.
And despite all this, HVAC equipment was still flying off the shelves.
According to data from AHRI, shipments of warm-air furnaces were up by more than 20% in March 2025, compared to March 2024. Oil warm-air furnace shipments were up 14%, air-source heat pumps were up nearly 4%, and residential gas and electric water heaters were up 6% and 6.5%, respectively. Central a/cs were the only ones to fall, by around 7%, and I’ll venture a guess that the uptick in heat pump sales might have something to do with it.
The latest from manufacturers has the refrigerant shortage tapering off in July, with everything back to normal in September. In the meantime, The ACHR NEWS is once again reminding everyone not to mix refrigerants or McGyver a quick fix in the field. It may seem like a good idea in June, but it won’t when you’re staring down a lawsuit from a customer whose warranty got voided.