Cox Automotive’s 2025 forecast predicts nearly two million new car registrations, a 3.6% increase compared with 2024. However, volumes remain 11.6% below the average for 2001-2019 as local economic pressures and supply chain disruptions continue.
Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Quarterly (IQ) suggests the transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) could result in fewer choices in vehicle makes and models.
Insight director, Philip Nothard, said: “Although global vehicle production remains high, a growing misalignment between production rates and the UK’s ambitious ZEV targets raises questions about OEMs’ commitment to meeting UK mandates, especially with rising pressure to increase EV sales.
“The industry faces complex trade-offs as it reduces ICE production to meet ZEV goals, setting up 2025 and beyond as a period of significant market transformation.”
Many OEMs are reassessing the agency sales model, delaying its full implementation. Nothard notes a shift from traditional ‘push’ to demand-driven ‘pull’ sales, may cause consumers to experience reduced vehicle availability.
Despite high household costs driven by inflation and elevated interest rates, Cox Automotive predicts a gradual boost in consumer confidence.
Diesel and mild hybrid electric vehicle (MHEV) registrations are projected to fall from 6% in 2024 to just 3% by 2027.
Petrol/MHEV registrations are expected to decrease from 51% to 35%, battery electric vehicle registrations are projected to rise from 21% to 34% and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle registrations could increase from 22% to 28%.
Nothard concluded: “By 2027, we expect to see a pivotal shift in the UK automotive landscape as the industry moves decisively away from internal combustion engines.
“With diesel and petrol vehicle shares set to decline sharply, and battery electric vehicles projected to make up over a third of new registrations, the market is clearly accelerating toward an electrified future.
“These changes underscore the need for adaptable strategies as both manufacturers and consumers embrace a new era in mobility.”