U.S shipments of gas furnaces, a/c units, and air-source heat pumps all fell sharply in June compared to the same month last year, while shipments of oil furnaces and residential water heaters were up slightly, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
The shipment data reflect a market still adapting to challenges presented by the transition to A2L-compatible equipment, a shortage of aftermarket R-454B for use by contractors, and uncertainty about the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which was clarified to a large extent on August 7 when tariffs of varying rates took effect for imports from dozens of countries around the world.
Northcoast Research Partners, which analyzes AHRI data, had predicted “decent, but weakening” June numbers.
Northcoast’s own June HVAC Shipments Index was down 14.3% on a year-over-year basis, the weakest it’s been since 2023, and down 35.6% on a month-over-month basis, the company said. “We think that the weak performance in June could be due in part to tariff-related restocking from OEMs ahead of potential price impacts” to Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers, said Sam Snyder, a Northcoast certified financial analyst.
AHRI reported that gas furnace shipments in June totaled 278,043 units, down 8.5% from the 303,885 units shipped in June of 2024. Oil furnace shipments were up 1.2%, to 2,061 units, compared to the 2,036 units shipped in June of last year.
Air-source heat pump shipments in June totaled 363,499, down 16% compared to June of 2024, when 432,916 units were shipped. Shipments of a/c units fell by 26.3%, to 477,270 units, compared to the 647,901 units shipped last June.
Shipments of gas-fueled residential storage water heaters were up in June just 0.7%, at 340,647 units, compared to the 338,361 units shipped in June of 2024. Shipments of electric residential storage water heaters were up nearly 1.9%, to 419,323 units, compared to 411,399 units shipped in June of 2024.
AHRI’s year-to-date shipment numbers offered more of a mixed market snapshot.
Gas furnace shipments were up 13.1% for the year so far, at 1,655,417 units, compared to 1,463,237 units shipped during the first six months of 2024. Shipments of oil furnaces were up 10.6%, with 13,527 units shipped through June compared to the 12,230 shipped through June of last year.
Shipments of central a/c units, however, were down 8.1%, with 2,500,254 units shipped during the first six months of the year compared to the 2,719,361 shipped during the same period in 2024. Heat pump shipments, year to date, rose 4%, with 2,076,887 units shipped compared to 1,997,170 units shipped during the same period in 2024.
Shipments of gas-fueled residential storage water heaters were up 1.1%, with 2,233,304 units shipped through June compared to 2,210,066 units shipped during the first six months of 2024. Electric residential storage water heater shipments were down 0.6%, with 2,634,037 units shipped during the first six months of this year compared to the 2,649,078 shipped during the same period in 2024.