by Matthew Mathison, Founder of MBL Partners & author of Leadership Orbit
The latest Fortune and Deloitte CEO Survey sent a clear signal.
Optimism among CEOs toward their own companies has fallen from 84 percent to 60 percent, while pessimism about the global economy has risen sharply by 40 points. According to the data, this is the lowest level of internal optimism CEOs have reported since the question was introduced in 2022.
This is not just sentiment shifting. It is belief, contracting. And that shift matters. Because optimism at the top is not a mood. It is momentum. When it disappears, companies slow down.
What the survey reflects is not just economic caution, but a shift in posture. Leaders are moving into protection mode. Supply chains are being rethought. Budgets are tightening. Major investments are being put on hold. These are not just strategic adjustments. They are signals that belief in forward momentum is being traded for safety. And that tradeoff changes how organizations think, act, and move.
These responses may be rational. But collectively, they represent something deeper than a reaction to market signals. They show a shift in energy from building to bracing.
That shift has consequences.
I have seen what happens when optimism fades. It rarely begins with a strategic reset. It starts with tone. What was once certain becomes cautious. What was next becomes not yet. Timelines stretch. Decisions stall. Teams hesitate. The organization begins to reflect the emotional stance of its leaders.
One CEO in the survey noted that economic uncertainty makes planning more difficult. That is true. But uncertainty is not new. What is new is the pace and scale at which optimism is being pulled back. And that withdrawal has a cost.
Optimism is often misunderstood. It is not blind hope. It is directional conviction. It is the belief that forward motion is still possible even when conditions are unstable. Without it, companies wait for clarity instead of helping create it.
In a prior operating role, I experienced how a sudden shift in optimism can slow an entire system. After a reputational shock, our team stopped moving. Not by instruction, but by instinct. Plans stalled. Focus drifted. Strategy had not changed, but the energy behind it had. What restored momentum was not certainty. It was clarity, and the decision to speak to possibility, not just risk.
That choice to act, and to speak, from a place of steady optimism made movement possible again.
This is the role optimism plays. It isn’t decoration. It’s the structural support that holds motion in place.
Optimism has not disappeared entirely. CEOs are still moving. Many are continuing to invest, especially in artificial intelligence. There are signals of progress. But even in those forward-leaning efforts, hesitation is showing up. Some leaders are already slowing major investments. The underlying message is clear. Optimism is no longer automatic. It has become conditional.
And when it is not carried with intention, organizations start to default to caution. Innovation slows. Risk tolerance disappears. People start seeking permission to act rather than assuming it.
The drop in CEO optimism is not just a statistic. It is a warning.
Leadership now requires protecting more than margin. It requires protecting motion. That means treating optimism as a leadership discipline. Not inflated positivity. Not spin. Just clear, calm, and consistent belief that something worth building still exists on the other side of complexity.
The next survey will reveal whether this drop was temporary or foundational. But long before the next set of data arrives, companies will feel the effects of whatever posture their leaders adopt now.
The ones that stay in motion will not be led by those with the most accurate forecasts. They will be led by those who know how to move through uncertainty without surrendering belief.
Optimism is not the opposite of realism. It is the condition that makes realism actionable.
When leaders carry it, companies move. When they don’t, everything waits.
Matthew Mathison is an entrepreneur, investor, and author of Leadership Orbit. With over 25 years of experience guiding companies through economic turbulence, he specializes in helping leaders navigate uncertainty with grounded optimism and strategic clarity.