Shipments of residential water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air-source heat pumps climbed in March, over March of 2024, while shipments of central a/c units fell, the latest AHRI figures show.
The context: HVAC industry in March was grappling with talk from the Trump administration of tariffs on imported products, including a 25% tariff imposed on all imported steel and aluminum. The administration’s tariffs, and the threat of even higher tariffs that were paused for 90 days a week after they were announced on April 2, continue to be an issue for the industry.
In addition, the industry was also adjusting to the shift to A2L-compatible equipment and was plagued by a shortage of aftermarket R-454B refrigerant. The scarcity of aftermarket R-454B was reportedly caused by a shortage of proper cylinders.
The bright spots: Some 298,639 warm-air furnaces were shipped in March, up by more than 20% compared to March of 2024, during which 248,582 units were shipped. Oil warm-air furnace shipments were up 14%, with 2,082 shipped this March compared to 1,826 in March of last year.
Shipments of residential gas storage water heaters were up nearly 6%, with 422,815 shipped in March compared to 399,097 in March 2024. Shipments of residential electric storage water heaters were up 6.5%, as 494,206 units were shipped in March of this year and 464,048 shipped in March of last year.
Air-source heat pump shipments were up nearly 4% in March, with 382,470 units shipped, compared to March of last year, when 367,973 units were shipped.
The down side: Shipments of a/c units, however, fell by more than 7%, compared to March of 2024. There were 818,761 units shipped in March 2025 and 838,626 units shipped last March.
Helicopter view: Year-to-date figures show that shipments of residential furnaces, residential gas storage water heaters, and a/c units and air-source heat pumps, all rose in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024. Shipments of electric residential water heaters fell slightly.
Shipments of residential gas warm-air furnaces through March of this year surged 22% over the period in 2024, with 829,424 units shipped during the first three months of this year compared to 679,629 units shipped in January, February, and March of 2024. Shipments of oil warm-air furnaces rose by 15%, to 7,924, compared to 6,890 units shipped during the same period last year.
Residential gas storage water heater shipments were up 2.4% for the quarter, to 1,170,842, compared to 1,143,650 shipped during the same period last year. Residential electric storage water heaters shipments fell by just over 1%, to 1,319,259 units, compared to 1,335,688 units shipped during the first three months of 2024.
Year-to-date shipments of central a/c units rose by 3.2%, to 1,126,190 units, compared to 1,091,585 units shipped during the first three months of 2024. The year-to-date total for air-source heat pump shipments rose by 7.7%, to 951,774, compared to 883,924 units shipped during the same period last year.