This CNBC article is titled, “Greece’s ghost towns offer a glimpse of a country struggling with ‘existential’ population collapse.” The three key points of Karen Gilchrist’s piece are:
– Greece’s abandoned “ghost” towns and villages offer an eerie glimpse into the future of a country, whose Prime Minister has warned of “existential” population collapse.
– Years of decreasing births, economic hardship and mass emigration have left huge swathes of the country vacant.
– Economists warn that population decline is now putting a major strain on society – with not enough young workers to grow the economy and support the elderly.
According to the article, Greece’s fertility rate is 1.3, which I assume means births per woman of child-bearing age. That is half of the rate from 1950 and much less than the 2.1 demographers say is needed to sustain a population. According to the CIA World Factbook, Greece’s birth rate is 7.4 per 1,000 population, which ranks 219th of 228 nations. By the way, the US ranks 145th.
That brings me to today’s post title. In the so-called developed world, birth rates have plummeted. For example, the UK ranks 170th of 228, France 164th, Germany 200th. China, which is barely a developed country (its per capita GDP ranks 97th), ranks 180th in birth rate per 1,000.
I don’t mean to be cynical, but a program like Social Security bears a resemblance to a Ponzi scheme. The Social Security taxes you pay while working do not go into an account with your name on it. Your taxes only pay for current benefits for retirees.
When the ratio of workers to retirees shrinks, programs like Social Security become endangered. All of the potential tax increases in the world cannot offset a shrinking population. In general, of course, economies need workers, no matter the supposed promise of AI.
Can anything be done? Should anything be done? In the CNBC article, Bert Colijn–chief economist at ING–is quoted saying, “There doesn’t seem to be one example of a policy that’s been introduced somewhere that has resulted in a swift turnaround in that decline.”
Demographics nerd that I am this piece really struck a chord with me, but I think it has relevance far beyond intellectual curiosity. For example, my two siblings and I have a combined total of one child; she is past child-bearing age and has no children. As people marry later and as countries/societies grow more affluent the birth rate declines. Virtually all of the countries with the highest birth rates are poor countries in Africa. Of course, a declining birth rate might, at some point, threaten a country’s affluence.
Anyway, I read the piece and wanted to share it. Your thoughts are welcome.
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A couple of links to articles about the Middle East; read them (Article 1, Article 2) if you are interested.
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Due to many factors I have not been thinking much about cars lately. This automotive “This Day In History” item (the world’s first auto show) was the subject of a long-ago post.
I could not finish listening to a recent Everyday Driver podcast because the two hosts were talking about potential purchases of station wagons and SUVs. (I have a difficult time listening to podcasts in my office, anyway. ADD is not a helpful trait.)
I also think the decline in my interest in cars stems from the same place as the decline in my interest in many other endeavors: the inevitable ennui of aging. I think most people become more jaded, less able to be excited as they age. “Been there, done that…”
Nevertheless, here is a car photo not shown recently in the blog.
This is a 2008 Saturn Sky Red Line. The potential issues with finding parts and getting the car serviced make an eventual acquisition unlikely, but I sure do like the way this car looks.
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Since WordPress has still NOT fixed the issue with blog data and “Pelated Rosts” here are some posts curated by me. Sometimes I think WordPress wants me to leave the platform, but then I realize they don’t care if I post here or not.
#ComingToACountryNearYou
#SaturnSkyRedLine
#SmugSelf-RighteousArrogantNarcissist