It’s shaping up to be another summer where air conditioners will be humming across much of the country.
To help contractors get a feel of what’s to come weather-wise, ACHR NEWS reached out to three of the country’s leading long-range forecasters, who provided a region-by-region breakdown for what the future will hold this summer.
“ENSO will be in a neutral stage with little influence on the pattern,” Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist/lead long-range forecaster, at AccuWeather, said. “Water temperatures will warm in the eastern Pacific, which will allow the retreat of the overall jet stream north and higher pressure to be more dominant. This will force a dip in the jet stream at times across the eastern half of the nation, leading to increased showers and thunderstorms.”
Because of this, Pastelok said drought and fires will be more widespread in the West and Plains, while flooding and severe weather will be more threatening for the eastern half of the nation. Early tropical storms are also favored mainly around the Gulf States.
Sarah Perreault, managing editor for The Old Farmer’s Almanac, said for most of the country, the summer is going to be defined by hot and dry conditions.
“There’s one area in particular that’s going to buck that trend,” Perreault said. “ In Southern Florida, we’re predicting below normal temperatures, but that certainly doesn’t mean ‘cold’ – that just means below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.”
In the Northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest, Perreault said they’re also not going to see as extreme heat as the rest of the country, but they will stick with the dryness trend.
“And the opposite is true of northern New England, and the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,” she said. “They are going to have the warmth, but they will also have a wetter than normal summer.”
Dan Collins, from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, noted that neutral ENSO conditions, with over 80% probability, will persist through May-June-July 2025, with decadal variability driving above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. and Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is likely in the West and Great Plains, while above-normal precipitation is favored in the Northeast, Gulf Coast, and Alaska. Drier conditions are likely in the Northwest and Plains, while the Northeast and Florida may see above-normal precipitation.
“The forecast of a neutral ENSO means that longer timescale decadal variability in temperature and precipitation are the largest predictable signals for the summer seasonal forecasts,” Collins said. “Regional sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, and drought are also considered as forcing of the local temperatures and precipitation. NWS seasonal forecasts predict the likelihood of seasonal average temperature or total precipitation being below normal, near normal, or above normal, when compared to the reference period, which is 1991 through 2020. Below normal, near normal, and above normal are equally likely in the reference period, and the forecasts show the most likely category in the forecast season.”
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HEAT: Much of the country, especially the West, is looking to be hotter than average. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)
Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA)
AccuWeather: Near to above temperatures this summer, near to above precipitation. Severe weather picks up in June and July, but mainly across PA, NJ. But this should not be active as 2024. July should not be as hot as 2024. High humidity levels in July and August (above average).
“Atlantic water temperatures near to just above average influencing temperatures,” Pastelok said. “Strong upper-level high in the West produces a dip in the jet stream East, more fronts in June and July, some smoke from fires in the West late summer possible.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be above normal, with rainfall above normal in northern parts and below normal in southern areas. Hot periods are expected in mid-June, mid- to late July, and mid-August.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are likely across the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the northeastern Contiguous United States (CONUS), including the central Atlantic Coast, indicating a warmer and wetter summer.
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HOT, DRY: The Old Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting hot, dry conditions for much of the country. (Courtesy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac)
Mid-Atlantic (MD, DE, VA, WV, NC)
AccuWeather: Near to slightly above temperatures, near to above precipitation; wetter toward WV early on, drier east with possible fires (early). Cold fronts will have a bit higher frequency in June and early July, leading to some severe thunderstorms; watch for tropical impacts in August, but may hold until Fall.
“Atlantic water temperatures near to just above average influence temps,” Pastelok said. “Strong upper-level high in the West produces a dip in the jet stream East, more fronts in June and July. Tropics could influence rainfall end of the season.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be warmer and drier than normal, with hottest temperatures in mid-June, mid-July, and early August. A tropical storm is possible in southern areas around mid-July. Some areas may see below-normal rainfall.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation are likely across the Mid-Atlantic, particularly along the central Atlantic Coast, suggesting a wetter and warmer summer.
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RAINY ATLANTIC: According to NOAA, the East Coast is looking at mostly above-average rainfall this summer. (Courtesy of NOAA)
Southeast (SC, GA, AL, TN)
AccuWeather: Near average precipitation SC/GA but above average TN/AL; temperatures slightly above in SC, GA, AL, but near in TN. Warm and humid nights; downright sticky in AL, GA, TN. Plenty of thunderstorm events, severe weather a higher risk in TN, AL. Flooding also a moderate risk in these states. Tropical impacts are possible at any time in the summer, especially in AL, TN this the Summer, expanding east in September.
“Water temperatures in the Gulf increase humidity, and nighttime temperatures are warmer,” Pastelok said. “Any tropical storm impact can increase rain totals significantly for the summer.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be warmer than normal, with hot periods in early and late June, early and late July, and early to mid-August. Rainfall will be below normal. A tropical storm threat is possible around mid-July.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are favored for the Southeast, with weaker probabilities in the Tennessee Valley. Above-normal precipitation is likely for the central and eastern Gulf Coast, indicating a warmer, wetter summer along coastal areas.
Deep South (MS, LA, AR)
AccuWeather: Active summer in this area with numerous showers and thunderstorm events. Above to much-above average precipitation and above-average temperatures, mostly driven by warm and humid nights. There is a high risk for severe weather in this region, including tornadoes. A tropical impact is possible as well, with flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be hot and dry, with hottest temperatures from late June into early July and late July through late August. Tropical storm threats are possible around mid-July, with a potential hurricane in late August.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are likely across the Deep South, especially along the Gulf Coast. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the central and eastern Gulf Coast, including coastal areas, pointing to a hot, wet summer.
Florida (FL)
AccuWeather: Drought improving slowly, fire threat lowering. Near average precipitation is expected along with near to slightly above average temperatures. Sea breezes frequent along the East Coast. Tropical impacts possible in the summer, higher west coast.
“High pressure strong over the south-central Atlantic creating sea breezes, warm sea surface temperature anomalies,” Pastelok said.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be warmer and drier in the north, cooler and wetter in the south. Hottest periods are expected in early July and mid-August. Tropical storm threats are possible around mid-July and late August.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation are likely for the eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida, forecasting a warmer and wetter summer.
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RAIN DAYS: It’s looking like less rain in the West, and more forecasted for the Appalachian Mountains this summer. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)
Great Lakes (MI, OH, IN, IL, WI)
AccuWeather: Near to slightly above temperatures, near to above average precipitation; moderate risk for severe weather, higher in IL and IN. Close monitoring on potential Derecho in June or July based on predicted pattern and research, especially for IL and IN. Some risk for more flooding this summer, higher farther south of this region. Frequent cold fronts early in the summer.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be above normal, with hottest periods from early to mid-July and mid-June to early August. Rainfall will be above normal in some areas, while others may see near-normal precipitation.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are favored for the central Great Lakes, with weaker probabilities. Equal Chances are indicated for precipitation in the central CONUS, suggesting a warmer summer with uncertain precipitation.
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TOASTY: Much of the country is going to see a hot summer. (Courtesy of NOAA)
Upper Midwest (MN, IA, ND, SD)
AccuWeather: Leaning below average precipitation, above to much-above temperatures. This area will have to deal with hot and dry periods, then occasional thunderstorms producing severe weather (possible derecho development). More cooling demand compared to the average. Spotty fires are possible, especially at the start and late summer. Moderate to severe drought is expected in this region.
“Upper-level high pressure over or just west of the region at times this summer,” Pastelok said. “Upper-level disturbances passing over the top of this high at times producing severe weather.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be warmer than normal with below-average rainfall. Hottest periods are expected in mid-June, early and late July, and mid- to late August.
NOAA: Equal Chances are indicated for temperatures in parts of the northern central CONUS, including the Upper Midwest. Below-normal precipitation is favored across the northern Great Plains, pointing to a drier summer with uncertain temperatures.
Central Plains (MO, KS, NE, OK)
AccuWeather: Above average temperatures, below average precipitation in western NE, KS, OK, but near to above in eastern areas and MO. A few periods where there can be thunderstorms, and severe weather, especially in June and August, but longer stretches of dry and hot weather. Drought conditions continue, especially in western KS, NE, and OK. In addition, the fire risk is moderate to high in these states as well. Intense heat means an increased cooling demand for this region. Tropical moisture can work north into parts of OK at some point.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will feature above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall. Hottest temperatures are expected from late June into early July and late August, with some areas very warm and dry.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are likely in the southern Central Plains, with weaker probabilities elsewhere. Below-normal precipitation is favored across most of the Great Plains, indicating a warmer, drier summer.
Texas and Gulf Coast (TX, LA coastal areas)
AccuWeather: Above average temperatures, near to above average precipitation TX., above to much-above average precipitation in LA. Showers and thunderstorms showing up a little more across Texas this summer, holding back extreme heat at times. Tropical impacts are possible in southeast Texas and Louisiana, which can lead to extreme flooding and damage. Severe weather risk higher in east TX and LA. Drought higher risk in far west TX, with fire potential into the summer.
“Upper-level high pressure shifts north by midsummer along the Gulf to influence patterns into Texas,” Pastelok said. “Upper-level disturbances coming underneath will be the triggers.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be very warm and dry, with hottest temperatures in late June, early and late July, and early to mid-August. Tropical storm threats are possible in mid-July and late August, with a potential hurricane in early August.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are likely across Texas and the Gulf Coast. Below-normal precipitation is favored in parts of Texas, with Equal Chances in western Texas and coastal areas, suggesting a hot, variably dry summer.
High Plains and Rockies (MT, WY, CO, NM, eastern ID)
AccuWeather: Above average temperatures, near to above average precipitation in NM, near to below in CO, and below to much below WY, MT, eastern ID. Across northern areas, drought intensifies early with hot periods and spotty fires. Spotty thunderstorms develop mid-summer and bring some relief to the dryness in the late summer and lower heat somewhat. CO and NM will be mainly dry and hot early, then spotty heavy afternoon and evening t-storms mid to late summer will lead to some drought relief, but can produce some flooding.
“Monsoon moisture arrives early in the interior southwest and spreads north in July and August,” Pastelok said. “Initially, dry thunderstorms can produce locally gusty winds and develop fires.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be above normal, with hottest periods in mid- to late June, early and late July, and late August. Rainfall will be below normal, with cooler temperatures in northern areas.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are likely in the Rockies and northern High Plains. Below-normal precipitation is favored across the northern Great Plains and parts of the region, forecasting a warmer, drier summer.
Southwest (AZ, NV, UT, southern CA)
AccuWeather: Near to above average temperatures, below average precipitation for most of CA, west/north NV, and northern UT. For S. CA and AZ, near to above-average precipitation is expected. Heat and dry weather in AZ, UT, and NV changes to some showers and thunderstorms in mid to late summer, leading to brief strong winds and torrential downpours. Initially, storms can be dry, producing more fires. This can spread to CA later in the summer. Fires spotty central California into the foothills early to mid-summer. More fire development possible in northern CA mid and late summer, southern CA can be spotty mid and late summer.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be hotter and drier than normal, with hottest periods in mid-June, mid- to late July, and early August. Some northern areas may be cooler than normal.
NOAA: High probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the Southwest, with above-normal precipitation slightly favored in a small area and equal chances elsewhere. Very warm summer forecast.
Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, western ID)
AccuWeather: Above average temperatures and below to much average precipitation – hot periods throughout the summer, drying out from the winter and spring. Large fires will likely develop in this area. Air quality can be poor in sections due to the fires and little movement in the air. Spotty dry thunderstorms can form at times.
“Upper-level high pressure will build near or over this region for most of the summer,” Pastelok said.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be cooler and drier than normal, with the hottest temperatures in mid-July.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are favored in the Pacific Northwest, with below-normal precipitation more likely across northwestern areas. Warmer and drier summer likely.
Alaska (AK)
AccuWeather: Below average precipitation for western parts of the state, near average in central, and near to above-average southeast areas. Above average temperatures western and central sections, near average eastern areas. Fire threat near average, especially for the southern and southwest part of the state, leaning below average southeast parts of the state.
“Upper-level high pressure in the Northwest Pacific can deflect storms away from the western part of the state and more toward the southeast part of the state this summer,” Pastelok said.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer temperatures will be cooler than normal, with below-normal rainfall in northern Alaska and above-normal in southern Alaska. Warmest periods are expected in mid-June, mid- and late July, and early August. Southern Alaska expects wetter conditions.
NOAA: Above-normal temperatures are favored for Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, with above-normal precipitation slightly favored across the region. Wetter and warmer summer expected.
Hawaii (HI)
AccuWeather: Near to above average temperatures expected, above average precipitation in the western Islands, near to below eastern Islands. Trade winds will weaken compared to the spring and winter.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Summer will be warmer in eastern Hawaii and cooler in western Hawaii, with above-normal rainfall. Highest temperatures are expected in early to mid-August. Above-normal rainfall this summer.
NOAA: High probability of above-normal temperatures for all Hawaiian Islands. Below-normal precipitation is likely for Hilo, with above-normal precipitation for Kahului, Honolulu, and Lihue. Varied precipitation across islands.